Which new businesses need commercial insurance? October 2026

Key findings

• 34% of new businesses scored as likely commercial buyers. Of 19,733 new businesses, 6,730 scored 70 or higher on our need score; 4,229 were flagged Hot and 577 Super hot.
• The trades are nearly all high-need. 100% of 1,310 new construction businesses, 99.7% of 749 trucking and transportation businesses and 99.9% of 1,405 restaurants and bars scored 70+.
• The biggest categories are the weakest prospects. Retail and e-commerce was the largest tagged group (3,833), but only 2.4% scored 70+. None of the 2,103 professional-services businesses or 1,163 real-estate holding entities did.
• Super hot leads came only from construction (405) and trucking (172). Reaching 95+ takes extra evidence such as a state NAICS code, a published email or a new USDOT registration. Connecticut (119) and Texas (394) publish more of those fields; in Pennsylvania, 62 new trucking businesses matched a new USDOT number.
• In Texas, 27% of new sales-tax permits (2,188 of 8,057) were new locations of businesses that already held a permit. We score those lower, because the business likely already has an agent.
• Scores also reflect how much each state publishes. The score adds small bonuses for a state NAICS code and a physical address (and, until Oct 19, 2026, a published business email), so the same industry can score differently by state: 98% of Connecticut retail filings scored 70+, versus 0% of Texas retail permits.
• 13% couldn't be classified (2,642), because the name alone doesn't say what the business does.

Share scored high-need (70+), by industry

All five states combined, Sep 17–Oct 18, 2026 (state windows differ, see below). Industries with at least 200 new businesses; count in brackets.

By state

New York and Pennsylvania counties are as filed with the state; Texas counties are the permit location. Colorado and Connecticut publish a city rather than a county, so we show cities.

Context: Census business applications

The U.S. Census Bureau's Business Formation Statistics for October 2026 are scheduled for release on November 12, 2026. Census counts business applications (applications for an Employer Identification Number), while this report counts state formation filings and, in Texas, new sales-tax permits. The two measure different things and aren't directly comparable.

How this report was built

• Sources: official state open-data portals (Colorado and Connecticut Secretaries of State, New York and Pennsylvania Departments of State, Texas Comptroller). See Data sources.
• What's counted: new filings that passed our filters for holding companies, registered-agent mail drops and shared virtual-office addresses. Dates are the state's filing, formation or permit date.
• Scores and tiers: rules-based 1–100 score; high-need = 70+; Hot = high-urgency industry scoring 75+; Super hot = Hot and 95+. Industry tags are assigned by state NAICS codes, name rules and AI review, and some are wrong. Full detail in our Methodology.
• No trend lines yet. Our database starts with this period, so there is no month-over-month change in this edition.
• Privacy: this report and its CSV contain aggregate counts only, never individual business records or personal data.

Download the aggregate data (latest.csv)October 2026 state × industry CSV

License: Data licensed under CC BY 4.0. You can share and adapt it, including commercially, with attribution. Cite as: UncoveredList, New Business Pulse (October 2026), uncoveredlist.com/pulse. The CSV holds aggregate counts only (by state, industry, top county or city, and filing date), never individual business records.

Citing this report: "UncoveredList, New Business Pulse (October 2026), uncoveredlist.com/pulse", with the state's date window. Media questions: support@uncoveredlist.com.

Explore by state and industry

• Texas: new restaurants, food businesses and bars (927)
• Texas: new manufacturing and industrial businesses (513)
• Texas: new construction and contractor businesses (429)
• Texas: new auto service businesses and dealers (390)
• Pennsylvania: new construction and contractor businesses (357)
• Texas: new wholesale and distribution businesses (343)
• Texas: new cleaning, landscaping and home service businesses (343)
• Pennsylvania: new trucking and transportation businesses (302)
• New York: new construction and contractor businesses (246)
• Pennsylvania: new cleaning, landscaping and home service businesses (205)